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Despite boasting the tightest spread of Wild Card weekend, the Texans-Colts matchup yields the highest combined total of all four upcoming playoff games at 49 points. In a totally inverse relationship, the Philadelphia Eagles-Chicago Bears matchup at Soldier Field features the lowest over/under betting total (41) and the largest spread (9).
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The bar graph below shows the observed probability density of total turnovers per game alongside what we would expect if total turnovers followed a Poisson distribution with mean 3.39 (the average in our data set). Under the assumption that total turnovers per game is now Poisson with a mean of 3.39, we can now calculate our "luck distribution".
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Yeah, you can bet more on one game if you have more info on it, but do not do it often and definitely do not bet more to hedge your bet. 2. Bad teams win too - A lot of inexperienced NFL bettors are happy to pick games that are overly hyped during the week. However, big game winners are not as big if there is one team that is much bettor than.
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While money line wagers aren’t as big in football and basketball, they can still be a good bet if you don’t like the point spread. The best money line bets are those on small underdogs you believe will win outright. That’s because you don’t have to pay juice on money line underdogs, so in the long run you’re likely going to save money.
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